Thursday, November 30, 2006

How do things look for the Indian economy

In the last couple of months, the Indian economy has continued its rise, and seen its regular share of criticisms and skeptisms. This morning I read that the Indian economy finally crossed the 9% growth rate last quarter, growing at 9.2%. This is good news, but it puts pressure on the Reserve Bank to slow down the chances of overheating, and they will probably raise the rates again. Just like any other public entity in the country, they are pretty conservative too.

A lot has been said about the lack of government spending on our basic infrastructure, and a lot will continue to be said, because I do not forsee any change in the way netas think about the country and themselves. The one good thing is that for the most part, the government has been letting the private sector spend money where it needs to go.

Andy Mukherjee is a journalist at Bloomberg, a financial news outlet in the United States, and he has written a nice article on the rise of the private sector. He is saying exactly what a lot of people have said before, that India is growing despite its government. There are so many sectors where the private enterprise wants to enter and make a change.

Here is how I think it works - as a social democracy, it is the Indian government's duty to provide the basic services to its people. These include civic amenities such as water, power and housing, law and order and justice. If you look at all of them, you will realize that they have a miserable track record on all of them. I could go on and on about what is wrong with all of them, but that'll take a long time.

So here are these services that the people need and their government totally incompetent to provide them, and that creates a gap in the demand and supply. So earlier with our Socialist tendencies, the government did nothing, and did not allow the private sector to do anything.

But today things have changed. I must give credit to some parts of the government where it is due. Despite the weak PM he may be, Dr. Singh does have the right mind about reforms in all the right places, including the police forces, the courts, the bureaucracy and cutting red tape.

Now we have private sector building our power plants, laying and expanding roads, building sea ports, and flying in our airports. In fact, we have private companies now running our most important airports. In a way it is good to see the netas shake off their distrust for the private individual. For long they have compounded on the false notion that only they know what is best for India and anybody else is just trying to hurt the country. The truth, as we would all agree, has been exactly the opposite. I am pretty sure the common Indian on the street has a lot more patriotism in him/her than a neta sitting in the assembly or the Parliament.

My friend Mayank used to use the phrase, "wealth to the villages" all the time when we discussed the Indian economy. And he is absolutely right. Our biggest concern is to see that the benefits of this capitalism led growth trickle down to the grassroots. Successful western economies such as England and the United States have witnessed this trickle down effect, but unlike India, they have seen active support from dilligent governments. Despite their shortcomings and corruption and politicking and all that, their governments have worked to allow the private individual to grow in his/her own right, cut red tape and allowed them to take over the reigns of the economy, while still keeping control of legislation and all that.

Prosperous nations have programs that benefit the poor, and ensure a just distribution of wealth (in an ideal world that is). England has the dole, US has the social security, India just has some legislation with no action on the ground.

How India's rich are plugging gaps in power and transportation

It's easy, perhaps too easy, to become pessimistic about India's deficient infrastructure.

Everything from potholed roads and clogged airports to frequent power blackouts and creaking urban transportation would appear to be daunting, if not intractable, shortcomings.

Sure, the challenges are humonguous, and the pace of their resolution is slow. The highly indebted Indian government hasn't the wherewithal to make a decisive improvement, which is estimated to require additional spending equal to 3.4 percent of gross domestic product. That's almost three-quarters of what India is spending on transportation, power, water, irrigation, communications and storage capacity in a year.

Private enterprise is playing an increasingly important role. Inadequate public spending is still a huge constraint, yet domestic non-state companies are slowly taking the lead in allocating much-needed capital to some of India's most overlooked requirements.

A glance at the latest Forbes magazine list of 40 richest Indians should prove that point. Except for the "knowledge- economy" czars -- the computer-software and generic-drug exporters who are mostly sticking to what they know -- almost everyone else on that list is investing in infrastructure.

The government's biggest headache is acquiring land; Mukesh Ambani's plan to build a new city a third as big as Mumbai is already dogged by the protests of farmers who feel they are being compensated too little for their land.

The private sector in India is awash with money and has a huge appetite for risk. Infrastructure-related work is already so brisk that it's creating capacity bottlenecks for machinery suppliers, says Ved Prakash Chaturvedi, managing director of Tata Asset Management Ltd. in Mumbai.

Supply-side bottlenecks, across a range of capital-goods businesses, may become a short-term impediment, especially if the economy continues to grow at about 8 percent, the pace at which it has expanded the past three years.

To remove the temporary deficiencies in capacity, the Indian financial system, the brain of the economy, has to step in.

The better banks are reading the hunger for investment demand correctly. ICICI Bank Ltd., India's largest by market value, is raising a record US$1 billion in yen loans.

Give it a few years. The private sector in India will build and operate substantial amounts of physical infrastructure. Quality public-sector projects will remain limited to rare successes such as Delhi Metro Rail Corp. because of the sheer paucity of management skills within the government. Adequate power supply and tolerable transportation networks are within India's reach, and sooner than people realize. Yet the key is with India's entrepreneurs, not its government.
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He agrees, India's growth should be linked to its citizens, and not its government. Recently the government announced that it will welcome foreign universities wishing to set up campuses in India. A couple of big names from all around the world have expressed their desire to do so, and all that is fine, but what is more important is what we do for ourselves. Sitting on the laurels of just 6 IIT's for a billion people is nothing to be proud of. The same with IIM's and the AIIMS's. India does not need more IIT's or IIM's, it needs its other engineering and business schools to rise to the standards of these institutions. And this is where the private enterprise is very important. The government does know how to run institutes of higher learning. IIT's, AIIMS and IIM's are autonomous bodies and are just fortunate to not be on the feeding bowl of an unscrupulous neta. Even then, AIIMS could not protect itself from the politics that these netas play. The Health Minister, Ramadoss, has filled the AIIMS board with his posse, and took on the MD for defying his orders. Thus while we set about making our lives and the lives of the people around us better, we must always remember that India is always at a constant threat from its politicians. This knowledge will serve us better as we try to break the shackles that have been cast on us for the last 6 decades.

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

I've missed you, Blog

Dear blog, i've been away for almost a month, and its sacrilageous on my part to do so. A lot has passed since my last post, like the great showing of Indian golfers in tournaments in Asia and Europe, the airports in various cities trudging along, the Democrats coming back to near power in the United States, and a lot of other paraphernalia that has affected my life in one way or the other.

Last week, the Supreme Court had rejected Reliance Energy's case against the awarding of the Delhi/Mumbai airport contracts to GMR and GVK consortiums respectively. That supposedly was the last hurdle that these consortiums would have faced in their endeavour to transform the current airports from pig stys to worldclass establishments.

A lot of hullabaloo is being raised about the state of Indian infrastructure. These days, its not about the state per se but more about the investment that is being put into it. While it is growing by leaps and bounds, it is never enough to satisfy any media commentator the world over.

Our tens of billions of American dollars of investment are still dwarfed by the hundreds of billions of American dollars of Chinese investment, and that status quo has remained for all of last decade and all of this one.

Here is what my fragile little mind can't understand, and maybe I am wrong when I write this, but this is how the governments in India, at the state and center, seem to work - we have no money, you have the money, but we will not let you do your thing because of 'policy' restrictions. The new mantra in this Con'gress led government is something called public-private partnership. I haven't really looked into how it works, but I think it is something like government letting the private sector do their thing while the government will try to cut red tape and give them enough freedom to build and control what they have built. Now I am certain this is not exactly how it works, but I think its something to that effect. I think it also involves the government taking a stake in the project but giving the managing control to the private company. Like the new airports that are coming up have minority stakes owned by the Airports Authority of India and some of the respective state governments.

While all this infra talk is taking place, the Indian economy seems to be growing at a brisk rate, although the background chatter of a widening economic chasm between different classes and sectors is growing louder. While many argue that this economic growth is not worth a lot because it is not generating the necessary growth in employment, there are many other reports that say that different sunrise sectors have the ability to create millions of additional jobs. Who do I believe? Being the nationalist and the optimist and the saner person I am, I am going to say that this growth is here to stay, and despite what the naysayers say, this growth will trickle down and trickle wide.

By the way, today is Children's Day. On Pandit ji's birth anniversary, I think we must take a vow to make this country a better place for our children. We must work hard to get them out of hazardous jobs and into schools. my heart cringes at the level of exploitation that the children in our country face. In addition to that is the problem of malnourishment. Most of the world's malnourished are in India. So tell me, after all these years of a green revolution, what have we achieved? Very little, to tell you the truth. India produces enough to feed itself, but much of it is lost on its way to the poor and needy. And is there anybody to care? Well, the common man is too stuck up in him/herself and too meek to do anything, and the netas and babus and police are happily taking a cut of all the stolen food, and so this wheel keeps going round and round.

Is sadi mein humarein liye Bhagwan ne sirf achhi baatein hi sochi hain, yeh mera vishwas hai. Parantu Bhagwan ne yeh bhi socha hai ki agar humein apne aapko sudharna hai to humein hi sabse zyaada mehnat karni hogi.

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Absolutely no idea of foreign policy

The Government of India, led by the Congress Party of India, or rather, Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, has absolutely no idea what it is doing on the foreign policy front. And there are plenty of reasons to tell me that this is true.

What the Congress is indeed good at is trumpeting successes that do not exist. In a way that is again very similar to the Government of the United States. Readers will recall that their earlier common quality was their efforts to subvert fundamental freedoms of their people.

So Kofi Annan is to step down soon, and there's talk all over the world as to who will take the post next. Before I begin to talk further, I am sure it is obvious that nothing gets done in the United Nations without the hidden consent of the world policeman.

So one fine day the Government of India announces that the current Under Secretary to the Secretary General, Shashi Tharoor, is India's choice for the top job. The announcement takes centerstage in Indian media and we get daily inputs from the governments about how strong his candidacy is.

Then we hear the news that oh, India's new buddy, the United States, has chosen the South Korean foreign minister as their choice for the job. Our netas still try to show that everything is fine and now doubts begin to appear if Shashi is going to get anywhere at all.

Today, as things stand, Shashi Tharoor has stepped down from his candidacy, and the South Korean foreign minister is set to be the next S-G of the United Nations. According to the Government of India, he fought bravely.

The problem with the UPA is that they seem to be putting all their eggs in the United States basket. Some kind words from President Bush once in a while and all the worries are over. Yet, where does the much touted Indo-US nuclear deal stand? The answer is nowhere. It is still not appeared before their Congress, and there is no saying if the deal will ever be through in its present form. The rest of the world knows that if you are not Israel or England, you can't and shouldn't expect the United States to stand up for you. It seems to me that more than making sure of results, the Government of India is just hoping that things work out for them, while they have no idea of how that will come about.

There is an article in The Telegraph by KP Nayar about how the Government of India has been putting up an apalling performance on the diplomatic stage. Apparently our leaders are as much prone to delusion as the Pakistani Army is.

India slips on diplomatic stage

The UPA government’s three ambitious foreign policy initiatives are now on uncertain ground: its much-trumpeted nuclear deal with the US, its high-profile bid to have an Indian as UN secretary-general and its high-stakes effort for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council.

Last month, Pakistan was unanimously elected to chair the Group of 77 (G77), the world’s largest coalition of 134 countries, even bigger than the non-aligned movement (NAM) with 118 members.
According to diplomats of Pacific group countries at the UN, India was handed the G77 chairmanship on a platter, but the UPA government turned down the offer.

Similarly, in the run-up to the Havana summit of NAM countries, India was sounded out about assuming the next chairmanship of the movement it helped found 45 years ago. That offer, too, was turned down by the Manmohan Singh government. As a result, the Havana summit chose Egypt, another co-founder of NAM, to host its next summit in Cairo in 2009.

India’s rejection of the G77 and NAM chairmanships was the result of an illusion in South Block that India was now part of the “big boys’ club” and did not need its traditional allies and partners any longer.

That illusion was reinforced by a gullible view that the US was now India’s “natural ally” and, therefore, everything else was secondary.

But when it came to the crunch, Washington did not support New Delhi’s bid either for a permanent seat in the Security Council or in electing Shashi Tharoor as the next UN secretary- general.

On the defensive against the mismanagement of Iraq, last week the Bush administration further showed its unwillingness to spend too much political capital in pushing through legislation on the Indo-US nuclear deal in the US Congress.

With Pakistan at the helm of G77 and New Delhi’s kid gloves approach to Cuba’s radical leadership of NAM, India is suddenly finding that it has no allies at the UN and no one to turn to for bloc support.

Europeans at the UN have the bloc support of the European Union, the Africans have the African Union behind them, the Southeast Asians have the ASEAN and countries like Pakistan have the solid backing of the Organisation of Islamic Conference.

India has only the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, but SAARC is often a platform for member countries to use India as their whipping boy.

The Pacific group is the biggest sub-group among Asian members of G77. So when Asia’s turn to lead G77 in 2007 came, Pacific countries approached New Delhi with a request to take over chairmanship, according to their diplomats.

But New Delhi stubbornly rejected the suggestion twice.

Similarly, a large number of NAM members were keen that India should host the 2009 NAM summit, especially to correct any radical deviation that the movement may assume under Cuba’s current chairmanship.

That too was summarily rejected by New Delhi.

For India, whose nominee to the UN Human Rights Committee, Justice P.N. Bhagwati, was re-elected for the fourth time last month with the second highest number of votes, the sudden changes represent an avoidable reversal of fortune.
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We all have heard that we must learn from the past and look to the future. Anybody who has been following the government knows that they do neither. Actually, I believe not learning from the past is an inherent quality of any Indian government, be it at the center or the states. They have always worked on winning minor, but immediate, stakes. The option of playing for long term gains and larger stakes is lost on most Indian politicians. That is a handicap that we have to live with as long as we vote in, or rather, let ourselves be exploited by these clowns.

And I have said it before and i'll say it again - PM Singh has the right mind for his domestic economic policy, but he is a bad, bad diplomat. The Congress Party is a self-serving, visionless party and it shows in the way they deal with issues. Nobody has any idea which direction to take the foreign policy to, and it seems that at every major juncture in world politics, they appear to be taken unawares.

I have often quoted Swapan Dasgupta of The Daily Pioneer on my blog. I like the man and I love the newspaper. This man is straightforward and tells it like it is. And unlike the Tabloid of India of The Hindustan Crimes, The Pioneer does not seem to be overly eager to look western, read, American. Or is an India hating Communist mouthpiece like The Hindu.

PM foreign to real issues

We are in that phase of a Government's life when Prime Ministers, and the retinue around them, start experiencing the monotony of national existence. When that happens, convention demands that the gaze of the Prime Minister's Office is conveniently diverted to "pressing international concerns"- with pleasurable consequences.

For the past two months, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has displayed an over-weaning anxiety to optimise his air-miles. First, there was the long haul to Brazil, followed by the quixotic sojourn in Havana - the high point being Fidel Castro's reminiscences of PL-480 shipments to India. Then there was the Gandhigiri trip to South Africa - a visit which intrigued the hosts and confused the Zulu protestors in Durban.

Last week, the Prime Minister was in England to collect an honorary doctorate from Cambridge. True, there was also a courtesy call on Tony Blair and the mandatory conviviality with the same businessmen he met two days before in Mumbai, but these were obligatory add-ons to confer an official gloss on a worthwhile private visit.

Last year in Oxford he provoked xenophobes at home with a subtle endorsement of the "coconut" trail, his thank you speech. Last week's Cambridge performance was unmentionably soporific. It was dotted with the pedestrian eloquence of the JNU kind: "The gap between the rich and the poor is widening... My appeal is that developed countries should not allow short-term national interests to prevail at the cost of promoting freer trade and combating poverty."

There were also the adulatory references to Jawaharlal Nehru - the head of the family - and Joan Robinson, the socialist economist whose dogmatic influence set the Indian economy back by many decades.

No wonder the Cambridge address secured the ungrudging approval of the certifying authority of progressivism: The Hindu.

Then it was off to what business journalists call the Nokia junket. Normally, Finland is not on any itinerary but this year Helsinki was hosting yet another India-EU summit. A prime ministerial visit to a Scandinavian country is best avoided.

Being unable to comprehend the clutter of Indian democracy and the array of the Indian experience, the countries of northern Europe have been accustomed to treating India on par with say, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, bywords for ethnic strife and poverty. As exporters of conflict resolution and foreign aid, they have never quite grasped India's nuclear imperatives nor really understood why President George Bush insists on treating New Delhi differently from Pyongyang.
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When the attitudes of our leaders are so irresolute and their characters so fragile, how can they expect to win anywhere in the world? You talk to any of our business leaders who have been planting their flags in all the continents of the world and you will find men and women of resolution, those that desire to do better and work hard towards it. Unfortunately, that attitude has not rubbed off on our politicians yet.

Monday, October 09, 2006

again, she's ashamed to be Indian

I think Arundhati Roy likes it when she sees Indians cower in fear and bow before their enemies. How else would I be able to explain her fixation to oppose every thing that is good for the country?

A traitor started a war against the state, was convicted, and is now scheduled to die, and there are all these people, who for some strange reason, do not want this to happen. They say this is against democracy, and the man should be given clemency.

I was looking at some pictures on Getty Images and I could see the bias this American press brings into this world. The group wanted clemency for the traitor was all sad, full of children dressed in white and with sad faces. Apparently its okay to involve children to add to the pro-traitors' propaganda in this situation.

While there were other images of people who did not want to let this murderer get away. but of course, since they care, they are the Hindu nationalists with their sloganeering and headbands and flags and everyother paraphernalia to show their violent nature. Ah American media. So tastefully done.

Coming back to Arundhati, she stopped knowing what she was doing a long time ago. Once the Booker was won, writing was not a priority anymore. Arundhati got herself involved in a long process of anti-India tirade, including many issues where she probably had no idea of the history or the ground realities. When India conducted the nuclear tests in 1998, Arundhati came out with her great essay, something titled like the end of humanity or something. Oh dear, the Indian man has a weapon now! Run for your lives, the crazy Indian will blow this earth apart! Of course, the generous western media is more than eager to run that story, and yes, the anti-nuke tirade gets ample attention in the world press. Personally, I think it was not based on fact

The same with the Narmada Bachao Andolan. Where was she when the Parliament was attacked, when the IC-814 was hijacked and the gutless Government of India released the terrorists who fight against our country till today, and where was she when the terrorists bombed our cities and killed our innocent and brave citizens? It does not serve her agenda to stand up for the wronged.

That lady is a decoy. The real problem is with the people who cannot see the need to punish the enemies who fight against India. I hope there is some way in which whichever God they believe in can show them how much anguish is caused when one loses a son, a daughter, a father, mother, or a brother or sister. Our soldiers put their lives on the line every single second for our safety, and when I come across these ingrates, it makes my blood boil.

'Clemency to Afzal a disgrace'

Amid growing demands for clemency for Mohammed Afzal Guru, facing execution for his role in the 2001 attack on Parliament, the kin of security personnel killed in the terrorist strike say they feel "cheated" by those seeking a pardon for him.

Sunder Singh Patel, the son of Delhi Police head constable Ghanshayam Patel, who lost his life said "after seeing the support from human rights and political groups for a terrorist, we feel cheated. This is not what my father laid down his life for."

A shocked Awdesh Kumar, whose wife Kamlesh Kumari, a CRPF constable, was killed in the attack, said "he (Guru) was involved in the attack of Parliament. His role was established and the trial took place from a lower court to the Supreme Court. Now why all of a sudden, the human rights groups and political parties have started raising their voice?"

"I can't believe it when I see and read that even political parties and Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad have been favouring clemency for Guru," Kumar said. He said that he felt proud that he was the husband of Kamlesh, but if clemency is granted, "I will regret that she wasted her life."

"I simply wonder where they were when my wife was killed, leaving a daughter in my lap...crying," said an emotional Kumar, adding "today Mehbooba Mufti, a partner with Congress, is siding with him. I want to know did she ever bother about my daughter who became an indirect victim of the terrorists."

Somvati Devi, the widow of Patel who was awarded the Kirti Chakra, the second highest civilian award for bravery, said any move to grant clemency to Guru or convert his death sentence would be an insult to all the security personnel who laid down their lives for the nation.

Her elder son Bachhu Singh, said "he (Guru) should be hanged publicly so that it would act as a deterrent to all those who want to harm my country."

Kamlesh and Patel were among the nine persons who died while protecting the Parliament from the audacious attack of militants.
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The sad fact of the matter is that traitors have always had a heavier hand in this nation, and we will only beat them by being stronger and more relentless in our pursuit of seeing a brighter and stronger India. Hang the traitors. And skin their political masters alive.

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Who cares about police reforms?

well, for one, certainly not the states of the country. All the states, except for Kerala, sat on the Supreme Court ordering police refors. All these states did was send an affidavit to the court asking the bench to dismiss the Public Interest Litigation brought about by former UP DGP, Prakash Singh.

Such is that mindset of the politicians. Why mess with such a perfectly exploitable system? A few days ago a media poll asked if the states were to blame for the lack of police reforms. While a majority said yes, I said no. The reason I said no is because I do not blame the states for not initiating police reforms. I blame the Federal government and the Supreme Court for not being tough enough on states to implement the reforms. I think it again demonstrates the classic Indian trait of not following up. The order is given, and is forgotten about. The states are expected to do their thing, and nobody bothers to double check. Taking a leaf from this system, the Indian infrastructure follows the same pattern too. Grand projects, once made, rot away.

But if I am not mistaken, I can see a rising awareness of this issue. The media has been picking up the related stories, and if the people can get involved this time, with a little support from the courts, then I am sure the netas will have to follow suit, because not matter how lethargic and incompetent they may be, you can make them run a 4 minute mile if you tell them there are votes to be had at the end.

Barring one, all states sat on police reforms for 10 yrs

NEW DELHI, OCTOBER 2: Ten days after the Supreme Court ordered all states and Union territories to put in place radical police reforms, there seems to be a studied silence among them — from Jaipur to Dispur, Chandigarh to Chennai. And the apparent lack of action on implementing the order, which has a December 31 deadline, is explained by how most of the states responded during the hearing of the reform petition: well, they did not bother to respond properly, if at all.

The decade-long process leading to the direction is a story of wilful apathy by most: After the court had served notice on the PIL, only Kerala sent its representative to New Delhi to put across its submission, said Prashant Bhushan, who appeared on behalf of petitioner Singh.

The rest, barring Orissa, shrugged off the notice by submitting brief affidavits that pleaded for the rejection of the PIL. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which send more than 100 MPs to the Lok Sabha but figure on top of the crime chart, did not even make an oral submission, let alone send in affidavits.

Other states and union territories that also chose to ignore the petition were Jammu & Kashmir, Tripura, Uttaranchal, Chhattisgarh, Delhi and Chandigarh.
Asked why UP did not care to send in an affidavit all these years, advocate-general SMA Kazmi said: “I don’t know about it. I have to check the records. I will talk to my DGP and let you know.’’

As for the papers that were filed, they were so sketchy that the court did not take note of them. About 19 states had sent their affidavits by 2000 and yet the court had to serve notices again to all of them. A bench, comprising Justice N Santosh Hegde, Justice BP Singh and Justice SB Sinha, on February 11 last year pushed the Centre and states to to “file their response within eight weeks’’.

Only eight states — Sikkim, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab, Rajasthan, Mizoram — again filed their affidavits, if only to reiterate their opposition to proposed reforms.

The states are now required to fast-track the apex court’s order within three months but with such a tardy and evasive record, it remains to be seen where the process, set off by Singh’s PIL, now heads.

They said: We won’t, we can’t, we don’t have to

• MAHARASHTRA: Inconsistent with Constitution to make police machinery independent and directly accountable to the people
• GUJARAT: Not binding on government to accept the recommendations... of the National Police Commission as it has no statutory force
• MIZORAM: Petition deserves to be dismissed as in federal structure, no need of uniformity in administration
• MANIPUR: Separating investigation from police not possible, because it will require more police personnel, funds
• TAMIL NADU: Dismiss the petition, as it is wrong to say that Tamil Nadu had failed to implement any of the recommendations of the National Police Commission
• MEGHALAYA: For a state facing serious insurgency, not wise for us to separate investigation from police administration
• ASSAM: We are considering the state committee report
• KERALA: Absolute power for security forces could jeopardize popular government and democracy
• ANDHRA PRADESH: We reject petition, already implementing state-level reforms
• PUNJAB, HIMACHAL PRADESH: Petition does not merit attention as we have already made committees for appointing officers