Nepal Follow-up

In my previous post, I wrote about India's parlays into Nepal to diffuse the political crisis brewing in that nation. In this post I will try to put together the events that have occured since.

As soon as I had finished posting on the blog, I read the news that the king has backed down and has promised to return the country to democracy. He offered the post of interim Prime Minister to the 7 party alliance that had been opposing his moves and spearheading the call for return to democracy.

But more than the words delivered by the Indian envoy, Dr. Karan Singh, I think it was the domestic situation in his own state that made him realize that he will lose further control if he keeps trying to suppress his people. That is exactly what happened. After his police shot and killed protestors on the streets of major cities, it would probably be a matter of time before his people revolted. Thus it is not that the king is remorseful or has learnt a lesson, he simply doesn't want to take further risk. In the meantime, the Prime Minister of India has spoken too, and said that India cannot afford to have another failed state in the neighborhood in the form of Nepal.

At the bottom of it all, there are three main angles in the Nepalese power set-up: the king, the political parties, and the Maoists. It is unfortunate that the King and the parties started to spar with each other than join hands against the common enemy, the generously funded Maoists. India has always supported the political parties and fortunately for us, so do the people of Nepal, and I think had to support the king because of his threats to lean towards the Chinese and thus negate Indian influence in the region. Now as things stand, the Maoists and the pro-democracy parties have joined hands to fight the king!

According to the latest news, the 7 party alliance has rejected the offer by the king to hand over power to them. Apparently the king would still keep extra contitutional powers in the 'new' setup. Many major international newspapers are reporting that the people of Nepal are calling for a new setup with complete democracy and the monarch to be a figurative head of state. It seems the call for the Republic of Nepal is getting stronger.

A guest Nepalese news editor has an article in The Indian Express and I would like to read what he says, and a nice write-up, I must say.

Royal retreat

King Gyanendra’s pontificating quotes have marked the skylines on the hoarding across the Capital at the Government’s expense. But the monarch’s action does not match his words at all. What comes through is a 21st century king with a medieval mindset, desperate to prove that any popular aspiration of his ‘subjects’ can be suppressed.

While his sincerity remains disputable, he brought to an end the direct control that he assumed on February 1, 2005. The king, however, made it clear that he was handing back the power to the people reluctantly.

India was willing to put all the eggs in the basket of the pro-democracy forces if the king refused to hand over power to them. Day after, the king felt secured once he sensed that India, and the western democracies, would continue to extend due respect to the constitutional monarchy.

The brutality of the security forces against the pro-democracy protestors, which had taken eight lives besides impairing many, was fresh in their memory. And the pro-democracy movement was also gradually taking a pro-republic dimension aiming to end the 237-year old institution.

‘‘I would not be a silent spectator like my brother,” he began to assert himself during early interactions with politicians, bureaucrats, security officials and the media. Despite making his ambition known right at the beginning, he moved systematically in realising it. Exploiting internal feuds among the political parties was the first visible method he chose.

No country other than China and Pakistan were supporting him after he became an authoritarian ruler on February 1, 2005. The king would be fascinated by crowds. State would organise crowds wherever he went. His tours have been expensive. Expenses for his domestic trips were largely diverted from local development budgets, while that abroad were clearly at the cost of state exchequer.

the Cabinet headed by the king has enhanced the budget for the palace. The King imported the first 6-door limousine, besides fleets of car including BMWs and a Rolls-Royce. Under his rule, inflation rate touched double digits and economists predicted an economic collapse.

In fact, the king’s open contempt for the parties and his ambition to rule the country purely with the support of the Royal Nepal Army (RNA), pushed the pro-democracy parties to work together with the Maoists towards a 12-point goal. In fact, India is supposed to have facilitated such an initiative hoping that if Nepal’s Maoists join political mainstream, it would also inspire the Indian Maoists.

With the alliance’s refusal to work with the Maoists as long as they would be in possession of arms, the Maoists are under pressure to declare an unilateral ceasefire to explore a more durable peace alternative.

The King’s retreat is a necessary condition for democracy’s success in Nepal. But Maoists’ support is vital for peace and prosperity. The alliance’s government, in all probability led by G P Koirala, will soon face its toughest challenge in adjusting the king and the Maoists as part of the same package deal.
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Nepalis calling for an end to Monarchy

For two weeks, this land of Mt. Everest and free-flowing spirituality has been awash with protests demanding an end to the king's autocratic rule. Gyanendra ordered parliament dissolved four years ago and dismissed the government last year in an effort to crush a rebellion.

On Saturday, thousands of demonstrators defied a daytime curfew and took to the streets again, clashing with authorities who drove them back with batons, rubber bullets and tear gas. Dozens were reported injured.

But after security forces with shoot-on-sight orders killed at least 12 protesters, public opinion has hardened, and those once willing to accommodate the king now insist on nothing short of a republic.

It would plunge Nepal into deep uncertainty as a seven-party alliance held together only by opposition to the king scrambled to fill the power vacuum. They scoff at the olive branch Gyanendra extended Friday, an offer to let the opposition name a prime minister, as too little, too late.

The alliance issued a formal statement Saturday rejecting Gyanendra's offer to let its members choose a prime minister and calling for popular unrest to continue. It also issued a 24-hour deadline for the king to meet its key demands: the restoration of parliament and the creation of a special assembly to revamp the constitution and determine whether to dump the monarchy.

The suddenness and ferocity of anti-royalist sentiment has taken many observers by surprise. Until recently, Nepalese kings were considered the incarnation of the Hindu god Vishnu. Their rule has been largely unquestioned, if not always enlightened, for more than 200 years. Gyanendra is the 12th ruler of the Shah dynasty.

Still, the intensity of the pro-democracy protests of recent days and the sudden explosion of disgust with the king has caught even the alliance off guard. The republican rage on the streets made it difficult, if not impossible, for the coalition to accept Gyanendra's offer Friday, said Yubaraj Ghimire, editor of the newsweekly Samay.

The alliance is now squeezed between popular contempt for the king's offer and heavy international pressure to accept it and name a prime minister. The United States, India and the United Nations have expressed some support for Gyanendra's move, further inflaming tempers here.

With protesters dead, scores of activists imprisoned and the army out on the streets, few underestimate his determination to hold on to power. Rumors have swirled of further repressive measures by a king emboldened by what he sees as international backing.