I am not able to understand why the two countries are in such an overdrive to hammer out a deal while President Bush is still in India, because from what I see, there are a lot of sticky issues still. There are a lot of things US wants India to do, and there are a couple of things that India doesn't want the US to insist it does.
The Fast Breeder Reactor project is aimed to be a premier Indian R&D masterpiece which will guide our future civilian nuclear energy. Our scientists don't want it under the civilian sector, thus bringing it under the purview of the IAEA. I put together a couple of media reports to see whats going on.
Factbox: Indo-US nuke negotiations
Here is a snapshot of nuclear power in India and the issues under discussion between New Delhi and Washington:
- India has 15 nuclear power plants in operation, with an installed generating capacity of 3,310 megawatts (MW). Seven more plants with a capacity of 3,420 MW are under construction and scheduled for completion by 2009.
In addition, there are two research reactors, which produce most of the country's weapons-grade uranium. Nuclear power accounts for about 2.7 percent of India's generating capacity.
- Under a July 2005 deal, agreed in principle between India and the United States, New Delhi would commit itself to certain non-proliferation standards including allowing international inspections of its civilian nuclear plants.
In return, it would gain access to U.S. civilian nuclear technology, including fuel and reactors denied for 30 years. India's military facilities would not be subject to inspections under the deal.
- The agreement hinges on India separating its nuclear facilities into civilian and military components.
- The United States has said it expects the "great majority" of India's nuclear reactors to be placed in the civilian list. But top Indian nuclear scientists are opposing this, saying it would place restrictions on the weapons programme.
- Only four nuclear power plants in operation (capacity 620 MW) and two under construction (capacity 2000 MW) are currently under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards.
- Indian Prime Minister Singh said this week that New Delhi would place nuclear reactors that generate about 65 percent of atomic power in the civilian list and open to inspections.
- Indian scientists are especially opposed to classifying the experimental "fast-breeder reactor" (FBR) programme in the civilian list, saying it is part of the country's research efforts. The FBRs, which use spent fuel from existing heavy water reactors to process plutonium, are intended as the mainstay of the country's nuclear power programme.
- Non-proliferation experts in the United States have said that the deal would allow the rapid expansion of India's nuclear arsenal and encourage Pakistan and China to respond.
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Okay, so the FBR's are a major point of argument here, and the PM has assured the Parliament that they will not be classified under the civilian sector.
United States President George W Bush on Wednesday landed in New Delhi for a visit whose success is being inextricably linked to the India-US nuclear deal.
However, aware of the complexities and the pitfalls involved in the deal, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice cautioned the media that Mr Bush's trip is "not a civil nuclear power trip". Although Ms Rice, as also the Indian side, are now trying to dilute the overwhelming focus on the deal, in case nothing substantial is signed and the visit is termed a "failure", it is the deal that has kept Indian and American officials on their toes in the run up to the visit.
En route India, when asked about India's refusal to place its Fast Breeder Reactors (FBRs) in the civilian list, Ms Rice asserted, "The key here is that India has to demonstrate that it is prepared to put its civilian reactors under safeguards, and do so permanently." Once placed under international inspection, India would not be able to convert them into military reactors.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Monday assured Parliament that FBRs would be kept away from international surveillance, an issue that has become a major sticking point in the deal.
Ms Rice, however, clarified, "There are a variety of ways that might happen. I don't want to get too much into the discussions that we're having on particular types of reactors, but I think not every reactor and not every type is going to be under safeguard."
Such a deal involves India's offer of placing 14 reactors on the civilian list for the present while giving an assurance of placing the remaining eight after about a decade. Critics of the deal here feel FBRs are indigenously produced and must therefore never be subject to international inspections. Also, it is felt that the "reciprocity" clause in the July 18 agreement has not been adequately met by the Americans, with the US Congress still far from amenable to the deal.
In India, the main opposition is based on the premise that nuclear energy, even at its peak capacity, would only address 6-8 per cent of India's total energy requirements which contests the justification of India laying bare its nuclear energy plans to international inspectors. Also, the scientist community feels Indian reactors cannot be subject to permanent safeguards as India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Clearly, the historic nuclear deal was meant to be the centrepiece of Mr Bush's India visit when the two countries signed the agreement on July 18 last year. But it has run into such rough weather that the two sides were left "working" on the deal hours before Mr Bush landed in New Delhi.
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You wanna know what I feel? Ehh, not gonna happen, at least not yet. But lets wait and see. Theres two days to the visit still.
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